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	<title>Jorge Maldonado, autor en Business 4.0</title>
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		<title>The importance of visibility in supply chain management</title>
		<link>https://business4cero.com/the-importance-of-visibility-in-supply-chain-management/</link>
					<comments>https://business4cero.com/the-importance-of-visibility-in-supply-chain-management/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jorge Maldonado]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Sep 2021 05:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Estrategia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply chain management]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://business4cero.com/?p=1085</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Material reports, demand forecast, release reports, it does not matter the name. At the end of the day, they all have important information. I would say extremely important information. Material requirements reports provide visibility along the supply chain. This kind of report answers two massive questions (among other ones of course), but basically: How much [&#8230;]</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/the-importance-of-visibility-in-supply-chain-management/">The importance of visibility in supply chain management</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Material reports, demand forecast, release reports, it does not matter the name. At the end of the day, they all have important information. I would say extremely important information. Material requirements reports provide visibility along the supply chain. This kind of report answers two massive questions (among other ones of course), but basically:</p>
<ul>
<li>How much (material) you want?</li>
<li>When do you want it?</li>
</ul>
<p>The continuous review of the information included in a material release report is a must do action every single week. If the demand goes up, the material planner has to ask to the supplier:</p>
<ol>
<li>Are you able to meet these requirements?</li>
<li>Do you have the amount of people for production plan?</li>
<li>How many shifts are you going to work per day?</li>
<li>Among other ones.</li>
</ol>
<p>If the demand goes down, the material planner has to ask (or explain) to the supplier:</p>
<ol>
<li>Explain the reason of the drop down of the demand.</li>
<li>Provide an updated plan to consume the finished goods forecasted previously.</li>
<li>Make a plan to warehouse that material.</li>
<li>Among other ones.</li>
</ol>
<p>As you see, information is a valuable commodity that helps us to make decisions. In supply chain management there are always risks in the decision making process that cannot be banned, due to always is going to exist a level of confidence. That is why, it is very important to check out every single week how the material requirements demand fluctuate either up or down.</p>
<p>Christopher and Lee (2004) explain how we have to take care of two massive concepts: Visibility and Control.</p>
<ul>
<li>This one describes that due to the length of supply chain systems there is no detailed knowledge of what goes on in other parts of the chain, as finished goods inventory, material inventory, work-in-process, etc. The solution here, is to share information among the members of the supply chain, this is because shared information reduces uncertainty and thus reduces the need for safety stock.</li>
<li>It describes the situation that even if information is shared and a manager knows the scope of the process, sometimes it is hard to control the different operators related to the supply chain, due to these operators are out of his/her hands like suppliers, weather, nonflexible production lines or production schedule changes are not feasible, etc. (Christopher and Lee, 2004).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Implementing the 3 V’s</strong></p>
<p>Often called the three V’s of supply chain management: visibility, velocity and variability are key elements of successful supply chain strategy. No matter what the competitive priority, the goal of supply chain management is to increase visibility and velocity while reducing variability. The future of supply chain management lies in continued pursuit of that goal.</p>
<p><strong>Increased visibility</strong></p>
<p>Visibility is the ability to view and share important information throughout a facility or supply chain no matter where in the facility or supply chain the information is located.</p>
<p>Increased visibility along the supply chain is a benefit for supply chain partners and the end customer. With better visibility, a supply chain manager or employee can see the results of activities occurring in the chain and is made aware of minor, incremental changes via technological processes. Better visibility has resulted in greater velocity.</p>
<p><strong>Increased velocity</strong></p>
<p>The flows of physical materials and services, cash, information and returns (or the reverse flow) of products for repairs, recycling or disposal, all get a benefit from being increased in speed and efficiency. Supply chain management impacts the velocity of these four flows in a positive manner.</p>
<p>Velocity is a term used to indicate the relative speed of all transactions, collectively, within a supply chain community. A maximum velocity is most desirable because it indicated a higher asset turnover for stockholders and faster order to delivery response for customers.</p>
<p><strong>Methods of increasing velocity</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Reducing the time in which inventory is not moving (idle time) by using Just in time delivery and lean manufacturing (the less time inventory spends at rest, the less likely it is to suffer damage or spoilage. Increased velocity reduces the expenses involved in warehousing inventory.</li>
<li>Eliminating activities that do not add value, thus reducing the time required to accomplish supply chain activities.</li>
<li>Speeding up the flow of material demand. Information about demand changes is crucial when the competitive strategy is responsiveness.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Reduced variability</strong></p>
<p>Variability is the natural tendency of the results of all business activities to fluctuate above and below an average value, such as fluctuations around the average time to completion, the average number of defects, average daily sales, or average production yields.</p>
<p>Supply chain management works to reduce variability in both supply and demand as much as possible. The traditional offset against variability is safety stock. If greater visibility along the chain results in greater velocity, supply chain managers should also be able to reduce the amounts of safety stock required to match supply to spikes in demand.</p>
<p>Once again, at the end of the day all these theories explained in this article pursues the goal to show how important is to share visibility (in a forecast or material demand report) to the suppliers. It is true that it is a never ending story by checking every single week how the demand changes or keeps the same for a considerable period of time. The performance of both material planner and supplier(s) is measured of how the material arrives on time and in the quantities needed. Times are changing so fast, a great year is coming in 2022 for manufacturing industry and the question is… Are you ready?</p>
<p>References</p>
<p>APICS (2017) <u>Supply Chain Design</u>. Module 1. Book 1 of 2. APICS (CSCP Version 4.1, 2017 Edition.</p>
<p>Christopher, M. and Lee, H. (2004) ‘Mitigating supply chain risk through improved confidence.’ <u>International Journal of Physical Distribution &amp; Logistics Management</u>.</p>
<p>Available from: http://www.martin-christopher.info/downloads/</p>
<p>Volume 34. [No 5] pp. 1-15. [Accessed 15 April 2010]</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/the-importance-of-visibility-in-supply-chain-management/">The importance of visibility in supply chain management</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Supply Chain Management and the Global Recession; driver or barrier?</title>
		<link>https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier-2/</link>
					<comments>https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier-2/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jorge Maldonado]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2021 05:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Estrategia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[estrategia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://business4cero.com/?p=943</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Let’s continue checking out what are the 3 concepts that affect supply chain management. As we saw in the previous paper, the 3 concepts are: a) Demand amplification b) Deterministic chaos c) Parallel interactions. In the previous article, it was explained how demand amplification works, also known as the “Bullwhip effect”. It is where the [&#8230;]</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier-2/">Supply Chain Management and the Global Recession; driver or barrier?</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let’s continue checking out what are the 3 concepts that affect supply chain management. As we saw in the previous paper, the 3 concepts are:</p>
<p>a) Demand amplification</p>
<p>b) Deterministic chaos</p>
<p>c) Parallel interactions.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier/">previous article</a>, it was explained how demand amplification works, also known as the “Bullwhip effect”. It is where the retailers and suppliers have observed that while customers demand for specific products does not vary (oscillate) much, inventory and back order levels fluctuate considerably across their supply chain.</p>
<p><strong>Deterministic chaos</strong></p>
<p>The next point that affects the supply chain management is deterministic chaos. As mentioned (Wilding, 1998), deterministic chaos is related to the supply chain systems; in theory, because the systems are predictable, but in practice the non-linear effects of many causes make the systems less predictable. Therefore, this leads to stock outs, erratic re-ordering and poor customer service.</p>
<p><strong>Stock outs</strong></p>
<p>Slack et al (2001) explain that stock out costs are incurred by failing to supply customers. If they are external, customers may take their business elsewhere. On the other hand, if customers are internal, stock outs could lead to idle time at the next process. At the end, external customers will be dissatisfied (Slack <em>et al</em>, 2001). As mentioned above, chaos theory indicates that systems are less predictable due to many variables are related. These factors are products stock outs created by suppliers and/or category planners who mismanaged shelf space, promotions, new product introductions or supply chain managers who misjudged long-term demand, faulty in-store ordering and/or replenishing practices, according to Corsten and Gruen (2004).</p>
<p><strong>Erratic re-ordering</strong></p>
<p>The second concept in deterministic chaos is erratic re-ordering. It is important to know first, how a re-ordering system works, in order to understand what an erratic one is. According to Slack <em>et al</em> (2001), the re-order level is defined as the level which the inventory will have reached when a replenishment order needs to be placed, but the inconvenience here is to assume that the demand and the order lead time are perfectly predictable. However, if large quantities are ordered on an infrequent basis, the risk of being out of stock will be diminished (become less) but stockholding costs will increase. On the other hand, if little amounts are ordered often, the stockholding costs will be reduced but ordering costs will rise, these two last points are according to Jessop and Morrison (1994).</p>
<p><strong>Poor customer service</strong></p>
<p>The third concept is poor customer service in relation with deterministic chaos. How can customer service be related with supply chains? Well, Porter (1985) described that a supply chain in a value system concept, is a network of independent firms value chains that are involved in the production and marketing of particular products and services. This network of value chains targets customer satisfaction (cited in Azuma <em>et al</em>, 2009). Also, Lynch (2009) establishes that the customer is the original driver of the entire supply chain; all the risks that an organization faces as part of its supply chain are traced directly back to the customer. However, Jessop and Morrison (1994) describe that a good service level indicator is difficult to apply in practice due to the variables to be considered, such as: investment in stock, costs, performance level and the human factor.</p>
<p><strong>Parallel interactions</strong></p>
<p>The third core concept is parallel interactions. Wilding (1998) describes them as the serial interactions that occur between each echelon in the supply chain, for example: a customer and a supplier. That is why logistics systems are prone to what has been called the “Bullwhip effect”. Forrester defined logistics systems as industrial dynamics due to the information feedback characteristics of industrial activity to show how organizational structure, amplification in policies and time delays in decisions and returns interact to influence the success of the enterprise (Forrester, 1961 cited in Christopher, 2005). Therefore supply chains are dynamics systems.</p>
<p>In order to develop a closer relationship between the echelons mentioned above, Harrison and Van Hoek (2008) comment that when buyers and suppliers relationships get together, they can have common goals, share information, aligned coordination mechanisms, joint decision making and common knowledge base. On the other hand, when they work separately there is lack of relationship goals, separate decision making, internal organization focus, labor turnover and bonus schemes not aligned (Harrison and Van Hoek, 2008).</p>
<p>As we have seen in this article, there are so many factors outside each company that affects, more or less, the operations in their supply chains. But now, let’s take a look about the methodologies that can be used to help us react faster and smoother in the companies we work. Lean, agile and “<em>leagile”</em> methodologies and characteristics.</p>
<p><strong>Lean thinking</strong></p>
<p>Degarmo <em>et al</em> (2003) comment that Taiichi Ohno developed the Toyota Production System, also called Just in Time (JIT) and since 1990 it has been called lean thinking. Womack and Jones (1996) refer to Taiichi Ohno, who used the Japanese word “muda”, that means waste, to refer to any human activity which absorbs resources but creates no value. In order to convert waste to value, he adopted lean thinking.</p>
<p>According to Heizer and Render (2009), lean operations supply the customer with exactly what the customer wants, when the customer wants it, without waste, through continuous improvement, this is JIT. Heizer and Render (2009), comment that Taiichi Ohno classified 7 types of waste:</p>
<ol>
<li>Over production. To produce sooner, faster or in greater quantities than the customer needs.</li>
<li>Waiting time. People or parts that wait for a work cycle to be completed.</li>
<li>Transportation time. Unnecessary movement of people or parts between processes.</li>
<li>Over inventory. Raw material, WIP or finished goods which do not have added value.</li>
<li>Over Motion. Unnecessary movement of people, parts or machines within a process.</li>
<li>Over processing. Processing beyond the standard required by the customer.</li>
<li>Defective product (Rework). Non right first time. Repetition or correction of a process.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>How is lean thinking related with supply chain management? </strong></p>
<p>In order to apply lean thinking to supply chains, Harrison and Van Hoek (2008) describe that first it is necessary to specify the value of the product or service from the end customer perspective, then to make this value flow by minimizing delays, inventories, defects and downtime thru the supply network, and finally to schedule, produce and deliver based on customer orders not forecasts.</p>
<p>However, Degarmo <em>et al</em> (2003) suggest that lean thinking fails principally for two reasons.</p>
<ul>
<li>The first one is that companies have to ensure that problems in quality issues will not reduce inventory and lead times. If the company cannot get to zero defects and zero breakdowns, they will not get into lean manufacturing.</li>
<li>The second one is related to companies’ management. If top management loses interest in the program, then middle management will also, and through all the employees down to shop floor staff (Degarmo <em>et al</em>, 2003). In terms of global recession, lean thinking was a driver because it generated benefits by reducing stock and now companies have a chance to redesign their systems to know when a customer wants a product, then to deliver it without adding stock investment cost and finally by performing accurate forecasts of demand to reduce costs and improve efficiency (Edwards, 2009).</li>
</ul>
<p>However, the barrier in lean supply chains is that if variability of unknown customer demands is not reduced from the process, it will be difficult to add value at each step of the supply chain process (Heizer and Render, 2009).</p>
<p>Lean production depends on a stable business environment as then it can maximize its efficiencies of scale (Lysons and Farrington, 2006). Hence, that during global recession customer demand was difficult to predict due to the uncertainty in the global market and the lack of stable business environments. So, we saw what lean thinking methodology is. It works best in high volume, low variety and predictable environments. Now, we will see how “Agile Thinking” works.</p>
<p><strong>Agile Thinking</strong></p>
<p>Agility in the sense of the ability to match supply with demand is not necessarily synonymous with leanness (Christopher, 2005). Agility is needed in less predictable environments where demand is volatile and the requirement for variety is high (Christopher, 2000). Also, an agile supply chain is customer responsive because it is capable of reading and responding to end-customer demand, rather than lean thinking which is based on forecast demand (Harrison and Van Hoek, 2008).</p>
<p>Goldman <em>et al</em> (1995) describe that agile thinking components are:</p>
<ol>
<li>Delivering value to the customer</li>
<li>Being ready for change</li>
<li>Valuing human knowledge</li>
<li>Forming virtual partnerships</li>
</ol>
<p>(Cited in Lysons and Farrington, 2006).</p>
<p>Also, agile supply chain practices imply customer demand fulfilment rather than market mediation (Towers and Bergvall, 2009), therefore to respond quickly to the customer demand, allocation of finished goods is necessary, hence that inventories will increase, but this is in order to anticipate unknown demand (Harrison and Van Hoek, 2008).</p>
<p>In order that agility can be used as a driver to overcome global recession, there are 2 concepts to consider: postponement and decoupling points.</p>
<p>According to Lysons and Farrington (2006), postponement and decoupling are important concepts of agility. By making customized product changes as close as possible to the time of purchase by the end-customer it is possible to provide a wide variety of customized products without incurring high inventory, processing and transportation costs (Lysons and Farrington, 2006).</p>
<p>This is because agile strategy is concerned with assigning capacity so that products can be made rapidly to meet customer demand that is difficult to forecast (Harrison and Van Hoek, 2008). Due to the situation of recession, cost efficiency along with effectiveness represents strategic key elements for obtaining competitive advantage (Khan and Creazza, 2009).</p>
<p>Therefore, supply chains should be widely developed by companies, as it enables to increase the degree of supply chain flexibility, hence mitigate supply chain risk and enhance the resilience of businesses (Khan and Creazza, 2009).</p>
<p>At the end of the day, you will see that both methodologies can be used combined.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier-2/">Supply Chain Management and the Global Recession; driver or barrier?</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">943</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Supply chain management and the global recession; driver or barrier?</title>
		<link>https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jorge Maldonado]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jun 2021 16:13:51 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Estrategia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://business4cero.com/?p=895</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The history repeats itself over and over again. During the last year the world has experienced a global economic crisis affecting companies from different sectors, such as: manufacturing. Back in 2010 was the mortgage crisis and now market downturn and pandemic caused by covid19. This situation has caused losses in organizations, such as money, material [&#8230;]</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier/">Supply chain management and the global recession; driver or barrier?</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The history repeats itself over and over again.</p>
<p>During the last year the world has experienced a global economic crisis affecting companies from different sectors, such as: manufacturing. Back in 2010 was the mortgage crisis and now market downturn and pandemic caused by covid19.</p>
<p>This situation has caused losses in organizations, such as money, material and people. Therefore it is more complex to carry out operations within this environment.</p>
<p>The present article explains:</p>
<ul>
<li>The importance of the supply chain management in relation with the last global recession. Also the good and bad points about the management techniques that companies have to deploy in order to compete in a globalized world.</li>
<li>Also this paper begins with a presentation of the concepts that affect the supply chain management and how they are related to the global recession.</li>
</ul>
<p>Definition. Supply chain management. According to Slack et al, (2001), it is the management of the interconnection of organizations which relate to each other through upstream and downstream linkages between the different processes that produce value in the form of products and services to the ultimate consumer.</p>
<p>This applies to different areas defined by Harrison and Van Hoek, (2008) such as: raw material supply, manufacturing, packaging and distribution to the end-customer.</p>
<p>Based on Wilding, (1998) there are 3 concepts that affect supply chain management:</p>
<ol>
<li>Demand amplification</li>
<li>Deterministic chaos</li>
<li>Parallel interactions</li>
</ol>
<p>How do these concepts (mentioned above) work related to SCM? Let’s explained them with more detail.</p>
<p><strong>Demand amplification</strong></p>
<p>This one explains that due to the supply chain uncertainty, the decision makers do not know definitely what to decide as they are indistinct about the objective (Towill and Childerhouse, 2004). At the end, variations in the demand are made by just one element in the chain, which is the final customer. To explain the factors about why the demand is never going to be certain, Wilding (1998) presents the following 4 concepts:</p>
<ul>
<li>Demand forecasting</li>
<li>Order batching</li>
<li>Price fluctuations in the marketplace</li>
<li>Rationing and shortage gaming</li>
</ul>
<p>However, based on Slack <em>et al</em>, (2001) knowing what customers request on a product is never totally certain. Therefore concerning future demand, attempts to put the resources in place which can satisfy the demand and attempts to respond quickly if actual demand does not match the forecast.</p>
<p>That is why Towill (1992) suggests that companies then carry buffer inventories and yet further additional overheads in the shape of expediters and schedulers. Basically, each level or echelon in the supply chain carries additional inventory because companies in the chain get together to develop an integrated systems approach. Consequently, everyone holds buffer inventories against the very same contingencies, by Towill, (1992). Also, it is important to mention the “Bullwhip effect”, a term used in supply chain management, to reflect the oscillating effect of inaccurate information or improper forecasts can have on inventories levels, by Lynch (2009).</p>
<p><strong>Deterministic chaos</strong></p>
<p>What is chaos? According to the Webster Dictionary (2010), it is the inherent unpredictability in the behavior of a complex natural system and in relation in a modern usage, chaos denotes a state of disorder and irregularity based on Schuster and Just (2005).</p>
<p>In supply chain systems, Wilding (1998) explains that the decision making process related to adjustment policies in driving inventory down to low levels can result in distress due to stock outs, rapid and erratic re-ordering and poor customer service levels.</p>
<p>All these risks in the decision making processes cannot be banned, due to always is going to exist a level of confidence. However, according to Christopher and Lee (2004) this lack of confidence can be reduced if two points are attacked: Visibility and Control.</p>
<ul>
<li>This one describes that due to the length of supply chain systems there is no detailed knowledge of what goes on in other parts of the chain, as finished goods inventory, material inventory, work-in-process, etc. The solution here, is to share information among the members of the supply chain, this is because shared information reduces uncertainty and thus reduces the need for safety stock.</li>
<li>It describes the situation that even if information is shared and a manager knows the scope of the process, sometimes it is hard to control the different operators related to the supply chain, due to these operators are out of his/her hands like suppliers, weather, unflexible production lines or production schedule changes are not feasible, etc. (Christopher and Lee, 2004).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Parallel interactions</strong></p>
<p>Defined by Wilding (1998) as the interactions that occur between different channels of the same tier in a supply network, like for example a vendor supplying material or a finished part for a customer. It has to be remembered that supply chains are dynamic systems and that at any point of time, hundreds of activities and decisions are happening somewhere in the chain, according to Slack et al (2001).</p>
<p>But even among all these number of decisions, there are concepts that can help to reduce the parallel interactions. Fernie, (2009) explains that at an organizational level trust and commitment, can be related to the relationship lifecycle.</p>
<p>Also, Cousins and Stanwix (2001) establish that trust has a role to play within and between inter- and intra-organisational relationships. However, according to the game theory, Binmore (1994) explains that much negotiation in real life is concerned with sharing information with a view to estimating the size of the potential surplus, in this case, of the power given by sharing or not the information.</p>
<p>Therefore, to control parallel interactions is a complex case, in an ethical point of view, trust is necessary to develop business relationships, (Cousins and Stanwix, 2001) but hard to achieve. In an operational point of view, parallel interactions can be reduced by buffering with inventory, however even for large buffers, interactions do occur but less frequently (Wilding, 1998).</p>
<p><strong>Barriers or Drivers?</strong></p>
<p>It is important to remember that the aim of this paper is to understand better all the factors related to supply chain management in order to keep the advantages of the positive concepts but also, to be aware of the dangerous practices, both of them during the overcoming of the global recession.</p>
<p><strong>Getting theory into practice</strong></p>
<p>In order to take care of uncertainty, Courtney et al (1999) suggest that any strategy requires a choice to shape the future, adapt to it or stay in the business without making a great commitment in the market. For example, in 2008 Microsoft invested more than €430 million in research and development in Europe (Microsoft, 2008), with this operation, the company looks to play a leadership role and shape a better future for them.</p>
<p>However, not all the companies have enough resources to invest, especially now, after overcoming the global recession. Burke (2009) argues to take advantage from the social-networking technologies such as instant messages, blogs and social networks web sites, by soliciting input from partners, suppliers, and end users can help organizations reduce costs and stay competitive during the upturn, and identify future business opportunities (cited in Oracle, 2010).</p>
<p><strong>How to estimate the demand forecast</strong></p>
<p>It is true that predicting sales based on historical data is nothing new (Garretson, 2009), but Lasserre (2003), explains that the central element of the global logistics system is the forecasting function in order to determine a central demand to specify which products go where and when.</p>
<p>Companies such as Tesco, C&amp;S and many in retailing are working to apply a series of complex algorithms to determine how other factors, such as current events and weather patterns, might also affect sales (Garretson, 2009). That is another reason to improve forecasting accuracy in upturn times. But with so many variables to consider, historical analysis alone is insufficient as a guide to the future.</p>
<p>The most reliable forecasting process incorporates three different perspectives in a discipline called “triangulated forecasting.” This approach integrates:</p>
<ul>
<li>Field assessments</li>
<li>Real-time pipeline assessment</li>
<li>Historical trend analysis to compare snapshots of opportunities and forecasts over time</li>
</ul>
<p>(Oracle, 2010).</p>
<p><strong>Order batching</strong></p>
<p>The next factor to consider is the order batching, due to customers tendency to order goods at certain times during a period, these periodic batching of processes result in surges in demand at certain points in time (Wilding, 1998). However the demand will not always be the same.  Slack et al (2001) establish that the replenishment of inventory depends on the uncertainty of demand, as the level of safety stock is influenced by the variability of both demand and the lead time of supply.</p>
<p><strong>Price fluctuation</strong></p>
<p>Finally, the next concept is the price fluctuation. Jessop and Morrison (1994) suggest a list of prices that the stores use to facilitate material costing, such as: supplier’s prices, trade discounts, quantity discounts, transport charges, insurance fees, customs duty, non-returnable packages and returnable packages. This results in bigger variations in demand patterns in price fluctuations (Wilding, 1998).</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/supply-chain-management-and-the-global-recession-driver-or-barrier/">Supply chain management and the global recession; driver or barrier?</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
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		<title>Estrategias para una mejor toma de decisiones</title>
		<link>https://business4cero.com/estrategias-para-una-mejor-toma-de-decisiones/</link>
					<comments>https://business4cero.com/estrategias-para-una-mejor-toma-de-decisiones/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jorge Maldonado]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 May 2021 05:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Estrategia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[estrategia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://business4cero.com/?p=764</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Desde que una persona se despierta por la mañana la toma de decisiones comienza a ser un problema. Qué ropa ponerse, qué comer para el desayuno, incluso algunas personas pueden pensar ¿Debo ir a trabajar? (¡Por supuesto! ¡Tienes que hacerlo!). Así pues, si para una persona, la vida está llena de decisiones que tomar, para una organización [&#8230;]</p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/estrategias-para-una-mejor-toma-de-decisiones/">Estrategias para una mejor toma de decisiones</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Desde que una persona se despierta por la mañana la toma de decisiones comienza a ser un problema. Qué ropa ponerse, qué comer para el desayuno, incluso algunas personas pueden pensar <i>¿Debo ir a trabajar? </i>(¡Por supuesto! ¡Tienes que hacerlo!). Así pues, si para una persona, la vida está llena de decisiones que tomar, para una organización debe ser una historia de nunca acabar.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Entonces, ¿cómo una empresa debe hacer frente a este tema? Vamos a empezar desde lo básico. Boddy (2008) establece que una decisión es un compromiso específico de acción, por lo general un compromiso de recursos. Todas estas acciones por hacer (o no), tienen dos finalidades:</span></p>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><i>Estratégica</i>. Se refiere a las decisiones a largo plazo sobre cuestiones que afectan a todo el conjunto de la organización.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><i>Táctica</i>. Que son las decisiones a corto plazo que afectan a las cuestiones operativas, que impactan en una determinada función o departamento (Armstrong, 2006).</span></li>
</ol>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Todos estos elementos que se incluirán al tomar una decisión, deben ser utilizados para desarrollar objetivos, políticas, procedimientos y programas (Appleby, 1994).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Con lo anterior, se puede ver que cualquier decisión de negocios, no es fácil de hacer. Los elementos que afectan una buena toma de decisión son sistemas inadecuados, datos sin valor y la integración de socios (Manufacturing &amp; Logistics IT, 2012). La siguiente sección examinará dichas barreras.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Barreras de la toma de decisiones</b></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Como se explicó antes, las decisiones pueden ser más o menos complejas, dependiendo del número de factores que las afectan, por ejemplo, gestión de tecnología, línea de producción multiproducto o una red de distribución complicada. En otros casos, la complejidad puede surgir por cambios en la tecnología, la política, complicaciones sociales y económicas, incluso los desastres naturales pueden aumentar la complejidad. ¿Recuerdan cuando en 2010 un volcán en Islandia entró en erupción, lanzando una nube de ceniza de 11 Kms a la atmósfera que afectó a cientos de miles de viajeros aéreos?. La afectación deriva de distintos factores, lo que denominamos <i>barreras</i>. Tenemos tres barreras: sistemas inadecuados, datos deficientes e integración de socios.</span></p>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><i></i><span class="s1"><i>Sistemas inadecuados</i></span></li>
</ol>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1">Antes de tratar de describir lo que es un sistema inadecuado, primero es necesario saber qué es un sistema. De acuerdo con Williams y Sawyer (2010), un sistema se define como una colección de componentes relacionados que interactúan para realizar una tarea para lograr una meta. Así que, ¿qué puede hacer que un sistema sea inadecuado? La interacción de los factores que intervienen, por ejemplo, información sobre los clientes, proveedores, productos, equipos, procedimientos, entre otras causas. Este sistema de información es una herramienta de comunicación para apoyar un sistema determinado la actividad humana, en este caso un sistema de negocio siendo aquí es donde la interacción entre la información y los datos viene. Tsitchizris y Lochovsky (1982) comentan que el concepto de <i>información</i> se define como el incremento del conocimiento que se puede deducir de los datos (Baynon-Davies, 2009). Ésta es la razón de por qué es tan importante una buena fuente de datos y las técnicas utilizadas para generar sistemas de información fiables.</span></p>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><i></i><span class="s1"><i>Datos deficientes</i></span></li>
</ol>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1">La información se extrae de los datos por ende el concepto de “data mining”, es un intento de identificar una relación entre las variables con el fin de ayudar a la toma de decisiones. Sin embargo, las decisiones importantes se hacen a menudo sin basarse en la información almacenada, sino en la intuición de los responsables a cargo. La razón se debe a que todos los riesgos en la toma de decisiones no pueden ser omitidos, debido a que siempre existirá un nivel de desconfianza en la tecnología por parte de los tomadores de decisiones. Esta desconfianza puede ser detonada debido a la manipulación de datos que un individuo puede causar, voluntariamente o no, lo que afecta la validación y fiabilidad de los análisis.</span></p>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><i></i><span class="s1"><i>Integración de socios</i></span></li>
</ol>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1">El promocional  de la  película “Social Network”, comienza con la frase “No consigues 500 millones de amigos sin hacer unos cuantos enemigos”. La colaboración empresarial es tan difícil de promover y cuando una organización ha desarrollado una oportunidad de negocios, mediante la investigación y la obtención de conocimientos, es necesario buscar la colaboración de otras entidades para obtener más oportunidades en el mercado. Esto se debe a que la colaboración en los negocios ayuda a alcanzar metas y mejorar el aprendizaje organizacional y la innovación. Sin embargo, Binmore explica que muchas negociaciones en la vida real tiene que ver con el intercambio de información o no. Por lo tanto, controlar las interacciones asociadas es un caso complejo, en un punto de vista ético, la confianza es necesaria para desarrollar relaciones de negocios pero difícil de lograr en un punto de vista operacional y real.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Las barreras han sido explicadas, pero ¿de qué forma afectan a las operaciones de negocio?. Para desarrollar planes e ideas para hacer frente a dichas barreras se debe tomar en cuenta<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>los conceptos de <i>Visibilidad</i> y<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span><i>Análisis de información</i>.</span></p>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><i>Visibilidad</i>. Christopher y Lee (2004) explican que, debido a la longitud de los sistemas de la cadena de suministro no existe un conocimiento detallado de lo que ocurre en otras partes de la cadena, por ejemplo, el inventario de productos terminados, productos en proceso, etc. Además, Harrison y Van Hoek (2008) explican que el papel del <i>tiempo</i> sobre el concepto  de ventaja competitiva es muy importante para crear visibilidad de tiempo a través de la red de suministro. La visibilidad ayuda a reducir la variabilidad en cualquier proceso dado, por lo tanto, disminuir la incertidumbre causando ineficiencias aunque la medición de la variabilidad no es el último paso. La mejora continua debe ser aplicada para reducir la variabilidad en cualquier proceso. Estos conceptos pueden ayudar a reducir la incertidumbre en el mercado global.</span></li>
</ol>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><i>Análisis de la Información.</i> La información ayuda a cualquier actividad humana en el sentido de que permite que se tomen decisiones en circunstancias particulares. Por lo tanto, las decisiones y la toma de decisiones recaen entre información y las acciones a realizar; sin embargo, la información debe tener algunos atributos para los tomadores de decisiones. Bocij explican que la <i>confianza</i> es de particular importancia en el origen de la información recibida. Hay muchas herramientas para analizar la información, pero la que quiero compartir aquí es según la Fundación de Sistemas de Información de Auditoría y Control (ISACF). En 1996, se dio a conocer los Objetivos de Control para la Información y Tecnologías Relacionadas (COBIT). Según Chaffey y Wood (2005), COBIT no es una metodología o una norma, sino que es una herramienta práctica que ayuda a gestionar la información. Las organizaciones deben utilizar COBIT para alcanzar metas como:</span></li>
</ol>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Desarrollar un propósito claro, documentado e implementado, con base en las necesidades de la empresa.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Las prácticas de gestión se llevan a cabo para aumentar el uso eficiente y óptimo de los recursos y aumentar la eficacia de los procesos de TI.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Cada decisión individual debe llevar a un compromiso, ya sea para realizar una actividad o para crear una idea. Ambas acciones deben ser sostenidas por información, fiable y precisa que puede ayudar a desarrollar los objetivos, programas y un sin fin de planes a largo y corto plazo. Todos estos factores interactúan juntos y aumentan la complejidad y la incertidumbre en un escenario de negocios.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">La información considerada como un elemento debe ser obtenida de fuentes confiables y mediante la colaboración de personas con los mismos objetivos. Sin embargo, la integración de socios es difícil de lograr, ya que cada empresa (o individuos) no compartirá información, esto puede ser considerado como una desventaja en la competencia del mercado. Tal es difícil sobrevivir en el mundo de los negocios. Una sola decisión puede llevar al éxito o al fracaso.</span></p>
<p>La entrada <a href="https://business4cero.com/estrategias-para-una-mejor-toma-de-decisiones/">Estrategias para una mejor toma de decisiones</a> se publicó primero en <a href="https://business4cero.com">Business 4.0</a>.</p>
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